What is a weighted forecast?
A revenue estimate built by multiplying each open deal's value by its stage's probability of closing, then summing the results.
Weighted forecast — A weighted forecast estimates future revenue by multiplying each open deal's value by the probability assigned to its stage and summing the results. It corrects a raw pipeline total for the deals that will not close.
Why it matters
Adding up every open deal's value gives a number. It is not a realistic forecast. It assumes every deal in the pipeline will close, which none do. A weighted forecast corrects for this. It multiplies each deal's value by the probability tied to its current stage. A deal early in the pipeline contributes only a fraction of its full value to the total. A deal near the end contributes most of it. Summing those weighted values across every open deal produces a number that reflects likely outcomes rather than best-case totals.
The forecast is only as accurate as the probabilities behind it. This is where most teams go wrong. They use default probabilities that came preset with the CRM, rather than numbers that reflect how their own deals convert. A stage the default calls fifty percent likely to close might convert at thirty percent for one team and seventy percent for another. It depends on the sales motion and the market. Set probabilities from the last couple of quarters' real conversion by stage. That turns the weighted forecast from a plausible guess into a number a team can plan against.
How a weighted forecast is built
- 1
List every open deal
Pull all deals currently in the pipeline, with their value and stage.
- 2
Assign a probability per stage
Each stage carries a percentage likelihood of closing.
- 3
Multiply value by probability
Each deal's weighted value is its value times its stage probability.
- 4
Sum the weighted values
Add every deal's weighted value to get the total weighted forecast.
- 5
Recalibrate probabilities periodically
Update stage probabilities from actual recent conversion, not defaults.
The mistake to watch for
Questions
- How is a weighted forecast different from a commit forecast?
- A weighted forecast applies a stage probability to every open deal automatically. A commit forecast is a rep's or manager's explicit judgment call on which specific deals they are confident will close, whatever the stage-based math says.
- Where do stage probabilities come from?
- They work best when set from a team's own historical conversion rate by stage over a recent period, such as the last two quarters. Not left at whatever default the CRM shipped with.
- Does a weighted forecast guarantee accuracy?
- No. It is only as accurate as the probabilities and the deal data behind it. Stale or optimistic stage assignments will still distort the total, even with correct math.